from pre-open analysis Monday 30th March
>>ES is likely to open below the low of last week’s value area (803.5). If buyers are dominant I would expect them to take this as an opportunity and quickly respond. If that does not happen then a shift in control may be underway.
In the longer timeframe 767 should limit the downside if buyers are still in control. This level is HalfRange from the Jan28 high and also 2month poc.<<
post open analysis (posted 10.45 est)
Tuesday 31st March
There was no quick response from the buyers on Monday, in fact the open was close to the high of the day. This is the first time since the March low that the buyers have been offered an opportunity below the previous value area that they didn’t quickly accept – as I wrote yesterday the buyers influence may be slowing.
After the news related mark down Monday’s value area was very narrow with no significant buying or selling imbalances to mark from the day session.
Typically at a change of trend from up to down I will record responsive selling (red at top) before the down trend begins. We have not seen that yet. Much safer for bears to wait for that confirmation.
Strictly speaking buyers are still in control.
