Post-open comment Wednesday 16th March
I marked Responsive Buying on Tuesday (green-at-bottom). ES spent the session working higher but this was Ineffective Buying because the Value Area was lower and wider. The session high was the previous day’s poc (dotted) and as we know a pattern of resistance at oprevious daay’s poc is ST weak.
I wrote in yesterday’s pre-open comments that 1281.50 is now a potential level of resistance and so it has proved so far in today’s session – high so far is 1281.75. Consoildation above that level would be first minor sign of ST strength but with the negatives stacking up in the LT I want to see more evidence than that before even considering the long side.
First Level S/R = 1281.50 Resistance = 1/2R 1299.50
Both Nyse and Nasdaq %Stocks>50dayma numbers are well below the 50 level which is an indication of weakness.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio came in at 2.74 which is almost unchanged from Monday’s ratio which was the lowest this year to date.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Still in strong price location.
+ UDX: Still in weak price location.
– TLT: Has moved into a stronger price location above the 6month poc at 91.80. imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
