posted 9.20a.m. est
from pre-open comments Thursday 14th May
>>..There’s major support at 872 and I’d be looking for Significant, Effective Selling below that level to confirm a new down trend. Until a new trend is confirmed I will assume the Buyers are still in control and a new high is possible.
I marked Significant Selling (just about) on Wednesday but the Value Area, although lower, was narrower on less volume and that’s not particularly Effective Selling. Red at bottom marked yesterday suggests that the low (880) will be tested during today’s day session. First Level S/R at 882.5<<
Pre-open Friday 15th May
Wednesday’s low was tested about an hour before open but not during the day session as was expected (cash index did make a new low during normal hours). Almost immediatley after the open there was a test of First Level S/R at 882.5 which was rejected. This was followed by a higher low. That’s an intraday bullish pattern and ES worked its way higher for most of the rest of the session.
Significant Responsive Buyers were marked (Green at bottom). Green at Bottom sets up a useful reference point in a rally. Since the March low there has been six previous days when Green at Bottom was marked and there has not been a subsequent close below any of those lows. Therefore if we see a close below 880 it would indicate that Buyers are not responding as strongly as they have been and control might well be shifting.
In the dayframe 890 may well be an attractive level (time spent) for ES on Friday as it was on Thursday. Consolidation above that level would indicate higher at least in the short term. 882.5 remains First Level S/R. Time spent below that level today would be a surprise (for reason above) and indicate lower. IF ES closes below 880 it would give us the first bearish weekly structure since the March low.
