posted 09.05 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 31st January
See previous comments. No Significant Buying marked for eleven days. ES consolidating lower prices with the very minor (8day) poc now at 1784. ES prints below this level in a very weak price location.
Stock index ETFs: All four ETFs have Momentum (PriceOsc) down and negative. Key charts are SPY which is printing below 179.39, its 4mn poc and IWM which is printing above 110.87, its 4mn poc. If IWM breaks below 110.87 it would signal further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1835.50 (4mn poc)
First Level Support = 1758.00 (prev poc and Dec low)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 36%), Nasdaq 52% (from 47%), R2000 46% (from 38%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 6.04 (from 6.78). A lower ratio but historically still very high. Not much fear registering here yet. On 16th Jan the ratio reached 7.5 which is the highest ratio in my database, registering extreme optimism and a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: printed a 3mn high on Wednesday. Technical Oscillators register overbought but Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: Tested the June low late December and has rallied from there but remains in a weak price location.
Oil USO: Printing back above the 3yr poc (34.13) in a stronger price location.
Dollar Index: currently holding above the important 80.15 level with the maj poc at 79.76. Strong price location if it holds. Further positive would be Momentum turning up.
EURUSD: Recently broke out to a two year high but this was rejected and price reversed. Today prints just above the Support at 1.3524 (9mn poc) and this is the important level to watch.
