posted 9.47a.m. est
from pre-open Friday 15th May
>>Significant Responsive Buyers were marked (Green at bottom). Green at Bottom sets up a useful reference point in a rally. Since the March low there has been six previous days when Green at Bottom was marked and there has not been a subsequent close below any of those lows. Therefore if we see a close below 880 it would indicate that Buyers are not responding as strongly as they have been and control might well be shifting. In the dayframe 890 may well be an attractive level (time spent) for ES on Friday as it was on Thursday. Consolidation above that level would indicate higher at least in the short term. 882.5 remains First Level S/R. Time spent below that level today would be a surprise (for reason above) and indicate lower. IF ES closes below 880 it would give us the first bearish weekly structure since the March low.<<
Pre-open Monday 18th May
Looking at the NYSE stats over the last seven trading days, five of those days registered more declining issues than advancing issues with more decling volume than advancing volume. The 10dayma of advancing volume is still greater than the 10dayma of declining volume but only just.
Last week I marked two instances of Significant Selling and one of Significant Buying and that’s the first time there’s been a weekly Selling imbalance since week-ending 6th March.
Friday saw Aggressive Significant Selling (Red at bottom) which generated an Overlapping/Lower, Wider Value Area but less volume.
Nearly all the above could be taken as evidence of distribution and a shift in control away from the Buyers. I’m looking for Effective Selling below the major support at 872 to confirm Sellers in control.
882.5 was/is the First Level S/R and that’s exactly where ES closed on Friday. That’s above Wednesday’s low so the Weekly Structure last week was not obviously bearish. I will not be considering the long side if ES is printing below 882.5
890 may well be an attractive level (time spent) for ES.
