from pre-open analysis Friday 20th March
>>We need to know if this response from the sellers is a forced response (because buyers are resting) or if a shift in control of the dayframe is actually taking place.
If it’s the latter then I’d suggest ES will struggle to spend much time above 787 during the day session. Confirmation would then follow if we saw aggressive (red at bottom) selling below 767 (20day poc). <<
pre-open analysis Monday 23rd March
Day session high on Friday was 785.25. There was aggressive (red at bottom) selling below 767 generating a lower/overlapping, wider value area.
On the minor timeframe this is active, effective selling but not enough to confirm that the sellers are back in control. Thursday and Friday saw active sellers, but on both days volume was lower than the previous day and the sellers only managed, in two days, to retrace one day (Wednesday) of active buying.
Monday is always the hardest to predict but if control is shifting to the sellers then ES would struggle to spend much time above 787 and we should see value building below 767 pretty quickly.
767 is the critical level to watch this week. This is the 1/2Range Jan28-Mar6. Currently I will not be a seller above that level.
If ES spends the early part of the week holding above 767 it increases the odds of higher prices.
