from pre-open comments Friday 3rd April
>>Thursday’s VA was above 830, which is now the major controlling price for this contract. That is bullish if 830 holds. I’m also seeing strong price location now on the weekly charts with indices printing above their 1/2H levels and overcoming resistance. Breadth is also supportive. With buyers in control of the dayframe this looks like continuation higher.
Where can it go wrong? I’m targeting 850 in price and early next week there is a major time pivot. The 6th/7th April is a possible turn date; 30 days up from low which is a normal bear major correction, 90 days from the Jan high and 1.5 years from the Oct07 top. The bearish scenario is weakness out of that time pivot and then value building lower than 830.
830 is the key. Strength is indicated if price stays above that level. Buyers are still in control and have been since March 12th.<<
Pre-open Monday 6th April
Value Area for the week was higher/overlapping generating less volume than the previous week. Three instances of significant buying last week. No selling imbalances for two weeks now. Buyers verly clearly in control and the making a good job of auctioning the market higher for now.
Technical oscillators are getting overbought and sentiment indicators are suggesting levels of optimism that would be a problem if this is a bear market rally; in fact very similar set-up to early January. I think in both price and time the market is at a pivotal point; this is an ideal juncture for a bear market rally to start running out of steam. If the rally has more to it we’ll find out if ES consolidates above 830 over the next few days.
See comments made on Friday, above.
