>>Tuesday’s Value Area was lower and wider on increased volume so bulls need to be cautious even though there was no Significant Selling marked.
If 911.5 becomes support at some point (maybe today) we’ll most likely see a new high this week. I would not consider the long side if ES prints below that level and I’m not considering the short side until I mark Effective Sellers.<<
Pre-open Thursday 14th May
Longframe:
Wednesday closed below six days worths of lows and that’s weakness moving out of the early May time pivot that I first mentioned 21st April. Based on that and the increased level of bullish sentiment we saw as the market accelerated up into the time pivot there’s a possibility that this bear market rally has run out steam. There’s major support at 872 and I’d be looking for Significant, Effective Selling below that level to confirm a new down trend. Until a new trend is confirmed I will assume the Buyers are still in control and a new high is possible.
Dayframe:
First level S/R on Monday proved to be resistance (see arrow) and when that level fell during the day session on Tuesday it again proved resistance. That’s not bullish behaviour and when we’ve seen it before over the last two months the Buyers have immediately responded below 2dayVA – but that has not happened here. A shift in control away from the Buyers may be occurring or at least their influence is slowing.
I marked Significant Selling (just about) on Wednesday but the Value Area, although lower, was narrower on less volume and that’s not particularly Effective Selling.
Red at bottom marked yesterday suggests that the low (880) will be tested during today’s day session. First Level S/R at 882.5 See also bar chart below
