posted 8.08am EST
Analysis-7.55a.m.EST-yesterday
>>I’m looking for another drive down this week so I’m not looking to put on any longs – too risky. Trying to play the strong possibility of an acceleration into the time pivot around 20th-24th, which I’m seeing down to 750 or just below. If that happens I’d be happy to go with responsive buyers but not yet.
A break of yesterday’s low at 776.5 would suggest continuation lower to me rather than test-then-rally.
I would suggest that ES up to 796 would cap the upside today if another drive down is imminent but a rally as far as 802 is a possibility. I’d looking for a fast rejection as a clue that the rally is done with.
So it’s an aggressive-sell at a break of 776.5 or a responsive-sell after a fast rejection around 796 or 802. If I don’t get either then I don’t trade.<<
Very happy with the way yesterday’s trading plan worked out – very much in line with what was hoped for. ES tested just above 796 just after the open followed by the fast rejection – the big clue the rally was over. We also saw Wednesday’s low broken late in the day and subsequent weakness as anticipated – today is likely to open well below yesterday’s RTH low.
Significant Sellers were Active (red) on the profile but the VA was overlapping – less volume. So, Sellers are in control but their effectiveness may be slowing. I said yesterday there is a strong possibility of an acceleration down into the 20th-24th time pivot with a minimum target of 750. I’m confident we’ll see that. It’s now a question of whether the buyers will respond somewhere in that price/time window. If we see price rejected quickly back after testing below 750 I’ll cut the short. With price location as poor as this I would need plenty of evidence that significant buyers were active and taking control before considering the long side.
