posted 7.45a.m. est
from pre-open comment Tuesday 19th May
>>….a higher low above a major poc (872) can be a powerful pattern. ES found support just above this level.
The 1/2Range since the high on 7th May is 902. This halfway point (or just below) could well be support if the Buyers are ready to auction a new high.<<
Pre-open Thursday 21st May
The day session low on Tuesday was 903.5 and soon after the close ES traded as low as 902.25 (support at 902) followed by a rally up to 923.5 early on Wednesday. However on Wednesday ES traded down below the 902 level (1/2Range) which for me was a surprise.
For Wednesday I marked Responsive Sellers (red at top) and Aggressive Sellers (red at bottom). Although the Sellers were active they were ineffective because the Value Area was overlapping. However, red at bottom suggests we will see a day session low today (Thursday) below the low on Wednesday (899.25).
The imbalances have been very mixed over the last few days alternating between active Buyers and Sellers. That is unusual, indicates ranging activity and makes things difficult. In six trading days we have seen four instances of Significant Selling and two of Significant Buying and yet the market is higher.
Dayframe:
First Level S/R is 911.5. I’m not interested in longs below that level and for now I’m not interested in short side until we see Effective Selling below 872.
We’re still waiting for Effective Sellers to appear and until that happens (and as I still have Buyers in control of the dayframe) I am anticipating the Buyers will respond and auction price higher.
Longframe:
The early May time pivot where I anticipated a turn for the market is still looking like a good call – so far. My best guess at the moment though is that we’ll see that high tested with an accompanying surge of bullish sentiment – this idea would be negated if we see Effective Selling below ES 872.
