posted 9.22a.m. est
from analysis Tuesday 31st March
>>Typically at a change of trend from up to down I will record responsive selling (red at top) before the down trend begins. We have not seen that yet. Much safer for bears to wait for that confirmation.<<
from pre-open comments Wednesday 1st April
>>…we should expect Monday’s low or Tuesday’s high to be tested. Strictly speaking the buyers are still in control so my best guess is higher in the short term but ES must overcome 791 which is obvious resistance<<
pre-open Thursday 2nd April
Effective buying activity was marked on Wednesday. Both responsive and aggressive, generating a higher/overlapping, wider value area but less volume
ES gapped lower on Monday on a news related markdown. Sellers were given opportunity for two days which they did not take. That gave the buyers confidence. Very early in Wednesday’s session buyers were offered price below two days VA which they responded to very quickly – further (aggressive) buying was marked later in the day. This was the eighth successive day without significant selling. Buyers still in control.
Something to note was the migration higher of the 60day controlling price from 767 to 786 – see the graphic.
Pre open, ES has traded higher, probing the major resistance level at 830 as we saw a week ago. If 830 is accepted rather than rejected this time then I would expect development to the 850 area but 830 may prove a difficult level to overcome.
