posted 9.23am EST
from pre-open analysis 02-19
>>Trying to play the strong possibility of an acceleration into the time pivot around 20th-24th, which I’m seeing down to 750 or just below. If that happens I’d be happy to go with responsive buyers but not yet.<<
from pre-open analysis 02-23
>>If price continues lower beyond Tuesday then I’ll abandon the “surprise” rally idea but right now is a strong price/time for that to happen.<<
from pre-open analysis 02-24
>>There was responsive and aggressive selling yesterday generating a lower, wider value area with less volume than Friday (but above the 20 day average). This suggests that yesterday’s low at 739.75 will be tested at some time today and that most of today’s price action will take place in an area lower than or overlapping 742-760.<<
The “surprise” was the fact that Tuesday’s price action did not at least test Monday’s low and the fact that Tuesday’s value area was not lower/overlapping Monday’s. Following a day with two instances of significant buying activity (Monday) this is rare. In my experience this rarity occurs in the tail of larger distributions and that’s why I was talking about development “down to 750 or just below” last week. There is a possibility that this is the start of a rally of some magnitude in price and/or time. If that’s the case the buyers footprint will become more obvious over the next few days even if price doesn’t immediately take off. I’m taking off my short on the open based on buying activity above Monday’s value area. I’m assuming ES will see development in the short term up to the 784/785 area. If this is immediately rejected I would short again on a bounce and wait to see if buyers are strong enough to stop me out at 790. Otherwise I’ll be flat and awaiting more information.
