Stock market panic decline to major Support today
Last week: ES turned down from the 1/2R Resistance at 3125.50, dashed line, see previous comments. Value Areas on Thu and Fri were generated entirely below the minor poc at 3049.50 and Friday’s session almost re-tested the 2887 poc Support. As I have been writing “it is critical that the Support at 2887 holds”.
Overnight: there has been a severe slide again, this one oil related, and ES has tested the major Support at 2719, see previous highlighted comments – currently bouncing back above 2800. Price below 2719 would put ES in a further weakened position. Bulls would hope this is a panic low and we see 2719 held.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 11%, Nasdaq 12%, R2000 11%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 12.81, a four-month low. Down from 28.6 in December, the highest in my database.
Bonds – TLT: in early Feb we saw a higher low form above the 1/2R Support off August high and TLT moved strongly higher from there. TLT spiked higher on Friday to a new high just below 170.
Dollar Index: Maj VAH at 99.50 was probed again in mid February, as in September. That was rejected again with the dollar lower and sharpoly lower today.
Gold: on Friday GLD closed at its highest level since early 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and had been printing below 11.41, the major poc, in a weak position. Rallied back mid-February but turned lower from that Resistance and fell heavily to its lowest weekly close since early 2016. Latest news is that the price of Oil has crashed overnight.
GBPUSD: mid-Feb the major poc migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). At the end of last week GBPUSD printed back above that level and moved in to a stronger position.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.14 at its highest level since early 2016.
Dollar Index: Maj VAH at 99.50 was probed again in mid February, as in September. That was rejected again with the dollar lower and sharpoly lower today.
Gold: on Friday GLD closed at its highest level since early 2013.
Oil: USO has declined this year and had been printing below 11.41, the major poc, in a weak position. Rallied back mid-February but turned lower from that Resistance and fell heavily to its lowest weekly close since early 2016. Latest news is that the price of Oil has crashed overnight.
GBPUSD: mid-Feb the major poc migrated lower, back to 1.2933 (from 1.3128). At the end of last week GBPUSD printed back above that level and moved in to a stronger position.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.14 at its highest level since early 2016.
