Stock market Sentiment – Charts through 16th August 2019 PDF
Stock Market Sentiment. Consensus polls, mutual fund flow indicators.
Consensus Polls:
08/16: AAII: Bulls% was higher at 23.2%, up from 21.7%. Bears% lower at 44.8%. Down from 48.1% previous week, the highest since the first week of the year. The net (Bulls minus Bears) at -21.6 is up from -26.5 previous week, the most Bearish since middle of December last year. As I wrote last week “an extreme like this doesn’t always mark the exact low (December’s was early) but since the Bull market began it is usually close”.
08/16: Investors Intelligence. Both Bulls% and Bears% was higher this week. Bulls% at 49.5% and Bear% at 28.3%. Unlike some other Sentiment indicators, newsletter writers are not fearful.
08/16: The NAAIM Exposure Index was slightly higher at 58.08. Previous week’s 56.59 was down from 91.41 in one week, a fall off 34.8 points and only one week has seen a larger fall than that, in August 2013.
Mutual Fund Flow:
08/16 My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 17.65. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.
08/16: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $3.1 Billion. Previous week’s outflow was a huge -$25.2 Billion. Since 2009 this is the third largest. Only w/e 12/14/18 and 12/21/18 were larger.