Stock market today 15th September 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: See Monday’s comments. ES recovered some ground on Monday but Tuesday and Wednesday’s session’s generated lower and narrower Value Areas with little bounce. Breadth has deteriorated, see numbers below and Pulse Chart. Note that we are now following the December contract and the 1/2R off the August high for this contract is 2142.25. Unless price can recover back above this level it is in a very weak price location.
First Level Resistance = 2142.25 (1/2R off August high, Dec contract)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Dayframe: the very minor poc is now at 2125.00. Good reference level for today.
Stock index ETFs: minor 1/2R levels to watch for SPY and IWM – (note that these will change if the charts make new lows for this move). SPY = 215.95 IWM = 122.66
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 34%), Nasdaq 48% (from 50%), R2000 42% (from 44%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 7.13. The ratio reached 7.9 on 08/26, a seven month high. As mentioned yesterday Rydex Bull fund assets reached a 10 day high on Monday – suggesting the Rydex traders were buying the dip which is a little worrying.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – following the weak pattern in August (see previous analysis) the chart has fallen sharply reaching a twelve week low on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: last week tested the Support at 94.76 (2yr poc) and has so far held. Price below that level would immediately put UDX in a weak position.
Gold: GLD is printing below 127.85 (1/2R off July high). This is weak price location in the ST. The major poc Support is at 118.22 (maj poc) – there is a possibility that poc could migrate higher – I am watching for that.
Oil: USO – is printing below 10.78, the 18mn poc in a weak price location and on Wednesday tested the Support at 10.07, the 1/2R off this year’s low. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness.
EURUSD: recently found Support at 1.1139, the 4yr poc and currently the chart is printing above that level. There is also Support lower at 1.1083, 1/2R of last year’s low.
click to enlarge graphic
