Stock market today 1st November 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: Monday’s session generated a narrow “indside” Value Area and the following notes are unchanged from yesterday. Thursday’s session opened, touched 2124.25 (1/2R off Aug high) and immediately sold off, see chart. This is a weak pattern. Friday’s session saw an early, rejected, probe above 2133 (2month poc). So price action on Thursday and Friday relative to these important levels was not encouraging. Pre-open today ES is still printing below that poc in a weak price location. With the Pulse Chart looking weak in terms of breadth and price momentum I would need ES printing time above 2142.25 before considering the long side. There is Support at 2087, the major poc, should price fall again.
Second Level Resistance = 2142.25 (1/2R off Aug high)
First Level Resistance= 2133.00 (2month poc)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Key Charts/Levels: IWM – is printing below 120.82, the 10mn poc in a weak price location. QQQ – 116.97 = 4mn poc Support. Chart closed just above that level on Monday.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 35% (from 31%), Nasdaq 33% (from 32%), R2000 33% (from 30%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 7.30. This is approaching 7.90 which was reached on 08/26, the highest ratio for the last ten months.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – At the end of September there was a rejected probe of the 4mn poc Resistance at 139.00. Chart is sharply lower from there. The 3year poc is at 130.77, TLT needs to hold that level to remain in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since early February. Lower today.
Gold: last month GLD tested 127.85, the 1/2R Resistance off the July high. This was rejected and chart declined sharply from there but has so far held the major poc Support at 119.84 (maj poc).
Oil: USO – USO is now printing below 10.78, the 18mn poc. This is weak price location. The COT data does not look encouraging, see eBook.
EURUSD: Higher today but remains in a weak price location below the 1.1165 (4yr poc) and below 1.1083 (maj 1/2R).unchanged at 7.30. This is approaching 7.90 which was reached on 08/26, the highest ratio for the last ten months.
click graphic to enlarge
