Stock market today 22nd December 2016
Dayframe: All the price action over the last five days has taken place within last Wednesday’s range, see Monday’s comments. Overnight the minor (20day) poc has migrated again – now to 2259.00. Price relative to this level will provide a clue intraday re minor strength/weakness. One hour pre-open ES was printing close to this level. Also, see Pulse chart – there is a clear negative divergence on the minor timeframe between price and momentum. Positives would be Momentum ticking up and Significant Buying (green) marked above ES 2259.00.
First Level Support = 2200 (minor poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 11.04 which is the highest reading since 5th June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75% (from 76%), Nasdaq 70% (from 72%), R2000 80% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – last week TLT printed its lowest level since July 2015 but has so far held the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level would be worrying.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its highest level since April 2003.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. On Thursday printed its lowest level since January.
Oil: USO – since the start of December USO has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc, in a strong price location. On 12/12 chart printed its highest level since late June.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click to enlarge graphic
