Stock market today 2nd March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous comments. Intraday numbers were strongly positive on Wednesday even following the sharply higher open. Once again we can say that “By any technical measure the market is extremely overbought but Buyers are still in control of the dayframe”. We are looking for a first sign of weakness – i.e. Active Effective Selling. Key Chart IWM has been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks and printed a new high on Wednesday. See Sentiment below.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked higher to 14.02. There is only one ratio higher than this in the database. Bull fund assets were almost unchanged but there was a large reduction (20%) in Bear fund assets that I follow which has sent the ratio to this extreme level. So Bears have all but disappeared but not an extreme of Bulls. The participation therefore (Bulls+Bears) is relatively low. Even so, the ratio itself is at an absolute extreme. Another extreme came in the Investor’s Intelligence survey this week with Bulls% reaching 63.1%, the highest since 1987.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66% (from 59%), Nasdaq 60% (from 52%), R2000 59% (from 49%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart has been consolidating above that Support which must hold if TLT is to maintain a strong price location. However chart was sharply lower on Wednesday with the low being at that Support. KEY chart.
Dollar Index: found Resistance twice in February at 101.52, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart has broken back above that level this week.
Gold: in early February GLD broke back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low, and has since held above that level. This week chart has briefly probed above the Resistance at 119.84, the major poc, but has so far been rejected from that level. Cash indicates a lower open for GLD.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 11.44 and is important to monitor. USO closed just below that level and futures indicate a lower open for USO today.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart currently prints below that level and has today printed a 30day low.
EURUSD: chart is printing below 1.0597, the 7mn poc, in a weak price location.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing back above that level in a stronger price location.
click graphic to enlarge
