Stock market today 31st October 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: See previous comments. Thursday’s session opened, touched 2124.25 (1/2R off Aug high) and immediately sold off, see chart. This is a weak pattern. Friday’s session saw an early, rejected, probe above 2133 (2month poc). So price action on Thursday and Friday relative to these important levels was not encouraging. Pre-open today ES is still printing below that poc in a weak price location. With the Pulse Chart looking weak in terms of breadth and price momentum I would need ES printing time above 2142.25 before considering the long side. There is Support at 2087, the major poc, should price fall again.
Second Level Resistance = 2142.25 (1/2R off Aug high)
First Level Resistance= 2133.00 (2month poc)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Key Charts/Levels: IWM – is printing below 120.82, the 10mn poc in a weak price location. QQQ – 116.97 = 4mn poc Support. Chart closed just above that level on Friday.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 31%, Nasdaq 32%, R2000 30%, UK 46%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.34. This is approaching 7.90 which was reached on 08/26, the highest ratio for the last ten months.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – At the end of September there was a rejected probe of the 4mn poc Resistance at 139.00. Chart is sharply lower from there. Friday’s close was below 130.77, the 3year poc but Futures indicate a higher er open for TLT today.
Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since early February.
Gold: last month GLD tested 127.85, the 1/2R Resistance off the July high. This was rejected and chart declined sharply from there but has so far held the major poc Support at 119.84 (maj poc).
Oil: USO – USO is currently holding above 10.78, the 18mn poc which is LT strong price location. However it printed an 18 day low on Friday and the COT data does not look encouraging, see eBook.
EURUSD: 10/10 the chart broke below the 1.1165 (4yr poc) and below 1.1083 (maj 1/2R) the following day. Remains in a weak price location and last week printed its lowest level since March.
click graphic to enlarge
