In the pre-open today I wrote..
>>Wednesday generated a very tight Value Area. Most time was spent printing 1366, enough in fact for the 4month poc to migrate up to this level. This increases the significance of 1366. Significant Buying marked above this level would be bullish and probably negate the negative implications of Tuesday’s price action but unless that happens I will assume Tuesday’s low will be tested. Once again this level could be intraday Support or Resistance today but if the chart prints time below 1366 post-open I will expect further weakness.<<
Immediately on Open ES printed as low as 1365.50 and has rallied from there. A poc migrating higher and then providing obvious Support is a bullish pattern I have talked about many times and this level has now proved its significance in my view. Henceforth if that level is broken I would expect sharply lower prices but ES finding Support at 1366 today is encouraging.
I have not yet marked Significant Buying above 1366 – that would be a further bullish development especially if 1386, the 1/2R Resistance off the March high, is exceeded. Nasdaq mini futures (NQ) has already retraced to its 1/2R and stalled.
And..to get to the real point of this post…. AAII (public) poll released some surprising data today. Bulls fell to 28.1%, the lowest number since w/e 23rd September last year. Bears were up to 41.6% (from 27.8%) and that is the highest level of Bears since w/e 7th October (a chart low). The change in Bears is +13.8 and I only see nine weekly changes larger than that looking back over four years. The nett at -13.5 is the lowest since w/e 30th September last year and the change in the nett is -23.9 which again, if I look back four years, I only see ten larger negative changes. This is quite a dramatic change in sentiment and from a contrarian viewpoint is bullish.