Pre-open Friday 12th February
See previous comments. Following Wednesday’s rejected probe of the 1870 poc Resistance ES sold off to a new low for this decline. A lower Value Area was generated on Thursday and pre-open today ES has printed above 1845. At current price I am not interested in the long side on any timeframe unless ES can print some time above 1870, which it has failed to do this week.
Dayframe: There is a very minor poc (9 day) at 1838.50 and price relative to that level post-open may provide a clue re ST direction.
First Level Resistance = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 20% (from 23%), Nasdaq 14% (unch), R2000 15% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 3.38. Thuesday’s ratio at 3.37 is as low as it has been for two years except for the sell-off late last year when the ratio fell to 3.00.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: Held the major Support at 105.00 following October’s decline and has rallied strongly. On Thursday chart spiked dramatically to a new high. Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: A probe in early December above the March high was rejected and on Thursday the chart printed its lowest level since then. There is Support at 95.22, the 12mn poc.
Gold: like bonds gold has rallied strongly spiked higher yesterday above the First Level LT Resistance at 115.12 (24mn poc). Futures indicate a lower open today.
Oil: earlier in the week oil broke back below the 1/2R off the January low which put the chart back in a weak price location and then sold off hard to a new low on Thursday. Today however futures are strongly higher.
EURUSD: currently printing above the Major 1/2R at 1.1241 in a stronger price location but is testing that level (Support) today.
