Technical analysis – Market pre-open 12th May 2016
See previous comments. On Tuesday I marked Aggressive Buying. However on Wednesday ES printed below Tuesday’s low negating any ST positive implications of that green-at-top high. As of ninety minutes pre-open ES was printing just above 2070. The v min 1/2R off the April high is at 2068 and price relative to that level post-open could be used as a guide to ST strength/weakness.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (1mn poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (8mn poc)
KEY Chart: The 1/2R off last years high for IWM is at 111.38. Bulls would want to see that level hold. The recent high was a failure just below the maj poc in the 115 price area. Watching this chart for a break above 115 or below 111. Could be a useful guide.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 69%), Nasdaq 48% (from 54%), R2000 55% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly llower at 4.57. On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT. The 7mn poc recently migrated to 128.47 and is now Support. On Wednesday the chart closed above 131.82, the 1/2R off this year’s high but futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: on 05/03 printed its lowest level since Jan 2015 but has rallied from there. Currently is still in a weak price location below 94.79, the 2yr poc Resistance.
Gold: GLD – sharply lower on Monday but as long as it holds above the major poc at 118.22 it is in a strong LT price location.
Oil: USO – the 6mn poc recently migrated to 10.78. On Tuesday USO closed back above that level in a strong price location. Wednesday was a strong up day. Today oil has printed its highest level since October.
EURUSD: Support is at 1.1198, the 3yr poc and as long as EURUSD holds this level it is in a strong price location.
