Technical analysis – Market pre-open 12th November 2015
Wednesday was a net Selling day but like the intraday Buyers on Tuesday (see yesterday’s comments) the Selling was not Effective as the Value Area was overlapping/higher. No Significant Buying (green) or Selling (red) has been marked for seven days. Time printed below 2063 would indicate further weakness.
Dayframe: the 5day poc just migrated to 2073.50. If ES struggles to print above that minor Resistance post-open today it could be clue that the chart will re-test the Support at 2063 that has so far held.
Key Charts: Momentum, although positive, is down for all four major stock index ETFs. We have noted many times that when this indicator is positive and turns down it has a tendency to fall back to zero, or close. IWM closed below 118.0, the 1/2R off this year’s high. UK FTSE100 closed below its key level which is 6445.50.
First Level Resistance = 2095.00 (12mn poc)
First Level Support = 2063.00 (5mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61% (from 63%), Nasdaq 58% (from 61%), R2000 60% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 8.41 which is a 57day high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: has this week reached its lowest level since July. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down and negative. Major Time Support at 117.14. Also – the low this week for IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF, has been the 105.00 maj poc Support. Good chart to monitor.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its highest level since April.
Gold GLD: looks set to test the July low. Closed on Wednesday at its lowest level since that date. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative and down.
Oil USO: has this week been printing below 14.28, the 1/2R off the August low, in a weak price location. Futures indicate a lower open today.
EURUSD: printing below 1.11 (1/2R off this year’s low) in a weak price location.
