Technical analysis – Market pre-open 15th December 2015
Note: I am now following the ES Mar contract.
Buyers were active intraday on Monday but a lower Value Area was generated which does not indicate Effective Buying.
Key Charts/Levels to watch this week:
IWM: 1/2R (off Sep low) Resistance at 113.53.
SPY: 1/2R (off this year’s high) Support at 198.10.
FTSE100: Found low yesterday on its major poc at 5870.
Resistance 2087.00 (5mn poc) to 2094.00 (maj poc)
First Level Support on Mar Contract= 1965.25 (1/R off this year’s high)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 21% (unch), Nasdaq 30% (from 32%), R2000 24% (from 26%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 7.61. SPY was down nearly 5% from the close on 12/01 to yesterday’s low. The ratio hit 9.00 on 12/01 (a 70day high) but has only fallen back to 7.61. This does not indicate much fear from the Rydex traders and it’s usually wise to look for a significant increase in pessimism when looking for a reliable price low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: closed back below 106.60 (18mn poc) and Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: earlier in the month probed above the March high but this was rejeceted. Momentum is negative and down.
Gold GLD: cash Gold printing close to the five year low recorded earlier this month. Very weak price location.
Oil: printed a new six year low on Monday.
EURUSD: rallied since 12/03 following the ECB announcement. First Level Resistance at 1.1080, 1/2R off March low.
