Technical analysis – Market pre-open 15th January
See previous comments. Buyers were active intraday on Thursday, see highlighted numbers, but an “inside” Value Area was generated so their activity was not Effective. ES has stalled this week with overlapping Vaue Areas being generated but until I see “Effective” Buying activity I will assume this is Sellers Resting.
Key Charts: DIA closed below its major poc (64.00) on Thursday. Bulls would want to see DIA recover back above this level as soon as possible. SPY has Support at the 187.20 poc, price printing time below that level would indicate more weakness.
Price momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major stock index ETFs remains negative and down.
Second Level Resistance = 2043.00 (1/2R off November’s high, Mar contract)
First Level Resistance = 1965.25 (1/R off last year’s high)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 12% (from 9%), Nasdaq 11% (from 9%), R2000 10% (from 8%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Ratio was lower at 5.02, a 58day low. Some fear has been registered in this indicator. More about this in today’s webcast. Also AAII Bulls% came in at 17.9% which is the lowest since April 2005. VIX however is registering a surprising level of complacency closing 23.95 on Thursday, almost the same as one month ago before the current sell-off started.
Supporting Charts:
see today’s webcast
