Technical analysis – Market pre-open 15th September
The minor (32dy) poc has migrated to 1954.00. I want to see Significant Buying marked above that level before considering new longs. Price below this level is weak location.
Major Resistance = 1978.50 (1/2R off this year’s high)
Potential Support/Resistance today = 1954.00 (32dy poc|)
Major Support = 1870.00 (formerly the maj poc)
ETFs: Important Resistance levels to watch this week (see eBook) = SPY 198.10; IWM 116.00; DIA 166.95. Price above these levels would be much stronger location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 17% (from 19%), Nasdaq 28% (from 29%), R2000 25% (from 26%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.75. Friday’s ratio at 3.68 was the lowest level since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance on 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative and down. Printed a 33day low last week.
Dollar Index: currently printing very close to 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level would be weak price location. There is Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) but price above that level would be stronger location.
Gold GLD: chart rallied into mid August but has retraced from there. Price is now printing below 107.78, the 1/2R off July low, which is weak price location. Momentum has turned negative.
Oil USO: printed a new low on 08/24 and then rallied very strongly from there to its highest level since late July. Momentum is positive and up.
EURUSD: currently printing very close to 1.1340 (12mn poc) which is now Resistance. The minor 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support recently but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
