Technical analysis – Market pre-open 16th March 2016
See previous comments. On Tuesday intraday Buyers were active, see highlighted numbers, but ES generated a lower Value Area. This could be seen as a slight negative. I also note that Momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major stock index ETFs has turned down and has a reliable habit of returning to zero once it has done this. However we have not seen Significant Selling (red) marked for eleven days and until we do I assume Buyers are still in control and in the LT, as long as ES holds above 1956.90, the 1/2R off last year’s high, it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 1990 (32day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 84% (from 87%), Nasdaq 68% (from 74%), R2000 72% (from 77%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 3.86. The rydex traders remain reluctant to back this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level. Support at 126.70 (1/2R level). Futures printed a 26day low on Monday but printing higher today.
Dollar Index: currently printing below 97.40, the 2year poc, currently Resistance. Time below the 1/2R at 92.62 would suggest further weakness.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.50, the major poc, which is now Support. Printed a ten day low on Tuesday.
Oil: printed a two month high last week but is off that high and lower this week.
EURUSD: printing very close to 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low. Price below 1.0925, the 12mn poc would suggest a retest of last year’s low.
