Technical analysis – Market pre-open 18th November
On Tuesday ES rallied further to briefly probe our First Level Resistance at 2063.00. Chart declined from there to close near the low of the day. Sellers were active intraday but the Value Area was generated higher, so, like the Buying on Monday, this was not an Effective day for the Sellers. ES seems to be finding price around 2045 attractive and possibly we will see a controlling price of some degree migrating to this area. One hour pre-open ES has rallied to probe the minor 1/2R at 2054. ES isn’t giving many clues here but price printing time above the now proven resistance at 2063 would be a sign of strength.
Momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major stock index ETFs has fallen back close to zero (see previous highlighted comments). This indicator ticking up would be another positive.
First Level Resistance = 2063.00 (5mn poc)
First Level Support = 1971.00 = 1/2R off this year’s high
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49% (from 54%), Nasdaq 51% (from 52%), R2000 51% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 7.83. Last week the ratio reached 8.41, a 57day high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT/IEF : Major Time Support is at TLT 117.14. IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF, found Support at 105.00 it’s maj poc Support. Good chart to monitor.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since April.
Gold GLD: tested the July low last week and printed a new low for this move on Tuesday.
Copper: printed its lowest level since 2009.
Oil USO: early last week was printing time below 14.28, the 1/2R off the August low, in a weak price location and then feel sharply at the end of the week.
EURUSD: has today printed its lowest level since April.
