Technical analysis – Market pre-open 18th September
Note: this was posted at 4.30 et.
If ES holds above 1978.50, the Major 1/2R Support, it will be strong price location. But with Thursday’s spike up to 2020 and the strong rejection at that level, there is a high chance that ES will want to test the poc at 1954.00. Should that occur, subsequent price action, and especially if the poc migrates, will give us a clue to the next directional move.
First Level Support = 1978.50 (1/2R off this year’s high)
Second Level Support = 1954.00 (33dy poc)
Breadth numbers are not yet supportive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 30%), Nasdaq 37% (unch), R2000 37% (from 36%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.12. Friday’s ratio at 3.68 was the lowest level since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance on 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative and down. There is Support at 117.15, the major poc.
Dollar Index: Earlier this month found Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) and has declined to test 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level would be weak location.
Gold GLD: closed on Thursday just above107.78, the 1/2R off July low. Price below this level would be weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
Oil USO: printed a new low on 08/24 and then rallied very strongly from there to its highest level since late July. This week has found Support at the minor 1/2R off August low. Momentum is positive and up.
EURUSD: currently printing just above 1.1340 (12mn poc). The minor 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support recently but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
