Technical analysis – Market pre-open 19th April 2016
Buyers were active again on Monday. For three days ES consolidated at higher levels with no reaction from the Sellers and on Monday Buyers stepped back in (green). As long as ES holds above 2041.00 it is in a strong price location. I’ve been targeting 2090, see previous highlighted comments but if Sellers do not react at this level (and I’ve a hunch they won’t) then 2020 is the next implied target from the current distribution.
First Level Support = 2057.00 (minor poc)
Second Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Market Charts: All major market charts remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 89% (from 88%), Nasdaq 80% (from 79%), R2000 85% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: Up day from the market and my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.63. Last Wednesday’s ratio at 5.20 was a three month high. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: monitoring these level: TLT 128.43, the 3mn poc. And price above 131.25, 1/2R off February high, would keep TLT in an ST strong price location. Also IEF 110.38, the 4mn poc. Charts must hold these levels to maintain a strong price location.
Dollar Index: still printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD – closed just below 118.05, the major poc. GLD needs to hold this level to remain in a strong price location. Cash inidcates a higher open today.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied from there. Opened sharply lower on Monday but recovered and futures indicate a higher open today.
EURUSD: Last Tuesday printed its highest level since October. Lower from there but as long as it holds 1.1198 (3yr poc) it is in a a strong price location.
