Technical analysis – Market pre-open 1st October 2015
Please read previous highlighted comments. ES (and SPY) found Support this week at the given poc levels. From that point ES rallied on Wednesday and overnight enough time was spent at 1923.00 to migrate the 55day poc to the level. This is significant. Having watched these distributions for a long time I know that the poc emerging at 1923.00 makes sense and suggests the distribution that began with the August sell-off may be near completion. ES may be ready to begin a new distribution and price relative to 1923.00 is now very important to monitor. Significant Buying marked above that poc would be a positive and suggest higher and Selling marked below that level would indicate more weakness.
Potential Support/Resistance = ES 1923.00 (50dy poc)
Support = ES 1865.00 (poc)
Current ETF Resistance: SPY 192.65 = 1/2R off Aug low; IWM 111.50 = poc; QQQ 105.10 = maj poc;
Current ETF Support: SPY 187.20 = poc; DIA 160.00 = 1/2R off Aug low.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 20% (from 15%), Nasdaq 23% (from 18%), R2000 25% (from 21%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.75. Previous week the ratio reached 3.7 the lowest level since October 2013.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: in a strong price location above 121.40 (12mn poc). Needs to hold that level.
Dollar Index: recently found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Rallied back and for eight days now has been probing the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) without overcoming it.
Gold GLD: has broken back below 107.78, the 1/2R off July low, and is in a weak price location.
Oil USO: is currently finding Support at the 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location.
EURUSD: is weaker printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
