Technical analysis – Market pre-open 20th April 2016
Tuesday’s session generated a higher Value Area. No Reaction from the Sellers around 2090, see yesterday’s comments. As long as ES holds above 2041.00 it is in a strong price location but I’ve moved First Level Support up to a minor (11day) poc at 2075.50.
First Level Support = 2075.50 (min poc)
Second Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 90% (from 89%), Nasdaq 80% (unch), R2000 85% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: Another up day from the market and my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower (slightly) again at 4.43. Last Wednesday’s ratio at 5.20 was a three month high but on 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: monitoring these level: TLT 128.43, the 3mn poc. And price above 131.25, 1/2R off February high, would keep TLT in an ST strong price location. Also IEF 110.38, the 4mn poc. Charts must hold these levels to maintain a strong price location.
Dollar Index: still printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD – closed above 118.05, the major poc. GLD needs to hold this level to remain in a strong price location.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied from there. Opened sharply lower on Monday but recovered with Tuesday higher. Futures indicate a lower open today.
EURUSD: Last Tuesday printed its highest level since October and as long as it holds 1.1198 (3yr poc) it is in a a strong price location.
