Technical analysis – Market pre-open 21st September
Note: we are now following the ES December contract. Last week’s profiles have been adjusted to Dec. Also note that the 1/2R off this year’s high based on the Dec contract is 1971.00 and this is Resistance at the start of this week. If ES can print time above 1971.00, it would be in a strong price location. On Friday ES printed more time at 1954.00 which is the 40dy poc. Price relative to this level is important at the start of this week and subsequent price action (especially if that poc migrates) will give us a clue to the next directional move.
Resistance = 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high – Dec contract)
Support = 1954.00 (40dy poc)
ETF Key Charts/Levels: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 118.68 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 116.00 = Major poc Support; QQQ 105.10 = now Major poc Support.
CP Market Charts: All major Market Charts remain negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 24%, Nasdaq 32%, R2000 30%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.68, the lowest level since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance on 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Momentum (PriceOsc) is still negative but has turned up. Friday closed strong above 121,40 (12mn poc) which is Support at the start of this week. There is more major Support at 117.15, the major poc.
Dollar Index: Earlier this month found Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) and has declined to test 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level would be weak location.
Gold GLD: closed last week above107.78, the 1/2R off July low. Price below this level would be weak location. Momentum is still negative but has turned up. Cash gold inicated GLD will open down today.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location and suggest a re-test of the low.
EURUSD: is weaker at the strt of this week printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). The 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support recently but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
