Technical analysis – Market pre-open 22nd December
Monday was a quiet day. Friday’s red-at-bottom low was not tested. Before considering the long side at these level I would want to see price above 2043 (min 1/2R), Significant Buying being marked, Breadth improve and Momentum turn up.
Resistance 2087.00 (5mn poc) to 2094.00 (maj poc)
First Level Resistance = 2043.00 (1/2R off November’s high, Mar contract)
Support = 1965.25 (1/R off this year’s high)
Key Charts/Levels:
IWM: Resistance at 115.35 (maj poc)
SPY: Support at 198.10 (1/2R off this year’s high)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 25% (from 22%), Nasdaq 37% (from 34%), R2000 32% (from 29%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 8.05 (from 6.99). This is a contrarian indicator. The recent 32day low for the ratio is 6.62. On 12/01 ratio reached 9.00 which was a 70day high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: closed just below the 106.60 (18mn poc) Resistance. There is Support at 105.00, the major poc. Next directional move will likely be signalled by a solid break from this range. Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: A probe earlier in the month above the March high was rejected. The minor 1/2R off that high is at 98.85. Dollar Bulls would want to see the index printing above that level.
Gold GLD: Printed a new five year low last week. Still in a very weak price location.
Oil: printed a new six year low on Monday.
EURUSD: The rally from the November low approached, but did not test, the First Level Resistance at 1.1080, 1/2R off March low.
