Technical analysis – Market pre-open 22nd March 2016
Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for fifteen days. ES printed a new high during Tuesday’s session but an overlapping Value Area was generated and overnight has printed below 2030. The price area around mid 2040s is proving a little difficult (see Friday’s highlighted comments). Price acceptance (time) at that would be a positive. Until Significant Selling (red) is marked I assume Buyers are still in control and as long as ES holds above 1990 it is in a strong price location on every timeframe.
First Level Support = 1990 (35day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 90% (from 91%), Nasdaq 77% (from 76%), R2000 81% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
03/18: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 3.89. The rydex traders remain reluctant to back this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level. Support at 126.70 (1/2R level).
Dollar Index: last week printed a new low for the year. Printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.50, the major poc, which is now Support.
Oil: futures have today printed a new high for the year at the highest level since early December.
EURUSD: found Support last week at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and is higher from there.
