Technical analysis – Market pre-open 22nd September 2015
See previous, highlighted, comments. Monday generated a second Value Area below 1971.00, the 1/2R Resistance off this year’s high. Like Friday, ES printed more time at the 1954.00 poc during the session and as I wrote on Monday, price relative to this level is important and subsequent price action (especially if that poc migrates) will give us a clue to the next directional move. So with ES printing below 1930 pre-open, chart is looking weak.
Second Level Resistance = 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high)
First Level Resistance = 1954.00 (45dy poc)
Support = 1917.50 (1/2R off August low)
ETF Key Charts/Levels: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 118.68 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 116.00 = Major poc; QQQ 105.10 = now Major poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 27% (from 24%), Nasdaq 33% (from 32%), R2000 33% (from 30%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.82. Monday’s 3.68 was the lowest ratio since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance on 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Monday closed weak below 121,40 (12mn poc). There is Support at 117.15, the major poc.
Dollar Index: Earlier this month found Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) and has declined to test (and find Support at) 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level would be weak location.
Gold GLD: closed above107.78, the 1/2R off July low. Price below this level would be weak location. Cash gold inicated GLD will open down today.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location and suggest a re-test of the low.
EURUSD: is weaker at the strt of this week printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). The 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support recently but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
