Technical analysis – Market pre-open 23rd March 2016
Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for sixeen days. ES printed a new high during Wednesday’s session but once again an overlapping Value Area was generated. The price area around mid 2040s is proving a little difficult (see Friday’s highlighted comments) but price is being accepted at that level, i.e. no Selling marked and three overlapping VAs. Until Significant Selling (red) is marked I assume Buyers are still in control and as long as ES holds above 1990 it is in a strong price location on every timeframe.
First Level Support = 1990 (35day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 90% (unch), Nasdaq 77% (unch), R2000 79% (from 81%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
03/18: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.84. The rydex traders remain reluctant to back this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level. Support at 126.70 (1/2R level).
Dollar Index: last week printed a new low for the year. Printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location but rallying this week.
Gold: Cash is down today but GLD is printing above 115.50, the major poc, which is now Support.
Oil: On Tuesday oil printed a new high for the year and the highest level since early December.
EURUSD: found Support last week at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and is currently printing above that level.
