Technical analysis – Market pre-open 23rd September 2015
See previous, highlighted, comments. Our First Level Support at 1917.50 held Tuesday’s session low. Overnight ES has tested below that Support but has rallied and pre-open is printing above 1935. Looking at the current distribution (which began on Aug 19th imo) the poc is at 1954.00, the VAH at 1986 and the VAL at 1923. The longer ES spends below 1954 the more likely it is that the poc will migrate lower. Should that happen the VAL will almost certainly fall and any Support that level may currently be providing will no longer be valid. So Bulls would hope that ES can rally back above that poc.
Second Level Resistance = 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high)
First Level Resistance = 1954.00 (45dy poc)
Support = 1917.50 (1/2R off August low)
ETF Key Charts/Levels: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 118.68 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 116.00 = Major poc; QQQ 105.10 = now Major poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 20% (from 27%), Nasdaq 27% (from 33%) (from 32%), R2000 33% (from 30%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.80. Monday’s 3.68 was the lowest ratio since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance on 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Monday closed above 121,40 (12mn poc). There is Support at 117.15, the major poc.
Dollar Index: Last week found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Has rallied back and is currently probing the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: closed close to 107.78, the 1/2R off July low. Price below this level would be weak location. Cash gold inicates GLD will open higher today.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low and is currently holding above here. Price below this level would be weak location and suggest a re-test of the low.
EURUSD: is weaker this week printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). The 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support recently but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
