Technical analysis – Market pre-open 24th September 2015
Please read previous, highlighted comments first. Pre-open today ES has broken the 1/2R Support at 1917.50. Also note that for the SPX index the equivalent level (1/2R from the Aug low) is at 1944.00. I am using these levels to guage strength/weakness in the ST. Even though I have not yet marked Active Significant Selling this week, if price cannot recover these levels it would indicate further weakness. If ES does recover post-open the Resistance for this chart is at 1954.00, the poc on the continuation chart which has not yet migrated lower.
I have been examining the current distribution (imo this began on Aug 19th) using only data for the ES Dec contract. On this basis and using a minor timeframe chart the poc has fallen to 1924.00. And, again looking at the SPX index, I see the same thing with the poc at 1935.00. As above, if ES/SPX print below these levels the distribution analysis would also indicate further weakness.
ETF Key Charts/Levels: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 118.68 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 116.00 = Major poc; QQQ 105.10 = now Major poc. Note that all four major Stock index ETFs have positive momentum but the indicator has turned down on all four charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 20% (unch), Nasdaq 28% (from 27%), R2000 28% (from 26%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was again, almost unchanged at 3.81. Monday’s 3.68 was the lowest ratio since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Futues indicate that TLT will open higher today in an ST strong location above 121,40 (12mn poc) and above the 1/2R off June low.
Dollar Index: Last week found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Has rallied back and is currently finding Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: closed above 107.78, the 1/2R off July low. Cash gold also found Support at its equivalent level and is higher today inicating a higher open for GLD.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low and is currently holding above here. Price below this level would be weak location and suggest a re-test of the low.
EURUSD: is weaker this week printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
