Technical analysis – Market pre-open 25th September 2015
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. During Thursday’s session ES recovered back above 1917.50, the 1/2R off Aug low and overnight has rallied as high as 1951.00 with Resistance at 1954.00 (48day poc). As I wrote on Wednesday “the longer ES spends below 1954 the more likely it is that the poc will migrate lower. Should that happen the VAL will almost certainly fall and any Support that level may currently be providing will no longer be valid. So Bulls would hope that ES can rally back above that poc”.
Second Level Resistance = 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high)
First Level Resistance = 1954.00 (48dy poc)
Support = 1917.50 (1/2R off August low)
ETF Key Charts/Levels: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 118.68 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 116.00 = Major poc; QQQ 105.10 = now Major poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 20% (unch), Nasdaq 28% (unch), R2000 31% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was once again, almost unchanged at 3.86. Monday’s 3.68 was the lowest ratio since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: needs to now hold above 121.40 (12mn poc) to stay in a strong price location but futues indicate that TLT will open lower today
Dollar Index: Last week found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Has rallied back and is currently probing the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: has held 107.78 this week, the 1/2R off July low and was strongly higher on Thursday. Cash gold indicates a lower open today for GLD.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low and again on Thursday. Price below this level would be weak location and suggest a re-test of the low.
EURUSD: is weaker this week printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
