Technical analysis – Market pre-open 26th April 2016
Monday generated another lower Value Area but rallied to close near the high of the session. Overnight ES rallied to probe 2090 and ninety minutes pre-open is printing above 2086, the minor poc. In the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above 2041.00 it is in a strong price location.
First Level S/R = 2086.00 (min poc)
Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 80% (from 82%), Nasdaq 75% (from 78%), R2000 79% (from 82%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 5.10. On 04/13 the ratio reached 5.20 which was a three month high. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: monitoring these level: TLT was sharply lower last week. The 6mn poc migrated to 130.78 and that is now Resistance with Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: closed the week above 94.79 the 2yr poc but is currently printing just below that level.
Gold: GLD – closed on Monday at 118.22, the major poc. Time above this level would be a positive.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied from there. On Friday printed its highest level since December. Lower on Monday but futures indicate a slightly higher open today.
EURUSD: Currently printing above 1.1198 (3yr poc) and need to hold that level to remain in a a strong price location.
