Technical analysis – Market pre-open 28th September 2015
Please read previous highlighted comments. On Friday the 50day poc migrated down to 1932.00 and this is now First Level Resistance. Pre-open today ES is printing below 1917.50, the 1/2R off Aug low, in a weak price location. Price relative to this level at the start of this week will give us a clue re ST strength/weakness. Note that all four Stock Index ETFs will very likely open this week in weak price locations, see below and Breadth is not supportive, see below.
Second Level Resistance = ES 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high)
First Level Resistance = ES 1932.00 (50dy poc)
S/R at the strat of the week = ES 1917.50 (1/2R off August low)
ETF Key Charts/Levels: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R Resistance; IWM 116.00 = maj poc Resistance; QQQ 105.10 = maj poc Resistance, DIA 164.00 = maj poc Resistance.
CP Market Charts: All major Market Charts remain negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 21%, Nasdaq 25%, R2000 27%, UK 27%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.76. Previous week the ratio reached 3.7 the lowest level since October 2013.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: needs to hold above 121.40 (12mn poc) to stay in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: recently found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Has rallied back and is currently probing the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: held 107.78 last week, the 1/2R off July low but cash gold indicates a lower open today for GLD.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location and suggest a re-test of the low.
EURUSD: is weaker printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
