Technical analysis – Market pre-open 29th December 2015
Monday generated a lower, narrow, Value Area on low Volume. Pre-open today ES is printing above 2060 and as long as it holds above 2043.00 (1/2R) it is in a strong price location.
Dayframe: the minor (21day) poc is now at 2052.00. Price relative to this level may be worth watching for ST Support/Resistance.
Resistance 2087.00 (5mn poc) to 2094.00 (maj poc)
First Level Support = 2043.00 (1/2R off November’s high, Mar contract)
Second Level Support = 1965.25 (1/R off this year’s high)
Market Charts: Nyse turned neutral, Nasdaq and R2000 turned positive.
U.S. breadth numbers remain below 50, see below, but momentum (PriceOsc) although still negative for all four major stock index ETFs, is heading up.
Key Chart IWM: Resistance at 115.35 (maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37%, Nasdaq 42%, R2000 39%, UK 58%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher on Monday at 8.76. The four month high is at 9.0.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: last week found Resistance at 106.60 (18mn poc) and is lower from there. There is Support at 105.00, the major poc. Next directional move will likely be signalled by a solid break from this range. Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: A probe earlier in the month above the March high was rejected. The minor 1/2R off that high is at 98.85. Dollar Bulls would want to see the index printing above that level.
Gold GLD: recently printed a new five year low. Still in a very weak price location.
Oil: printed a new six year low last week but rallied strongly from there. Lower on Monday but futures indicate a higher open today.
EURUSD: The rally from the November low approached, but did not test, the First Level Resistance at 1.1080, 1/2R off March low.
