Pre-open Monday 29th February
See previous highlighted comments. Last week I marked Significant Buying once. Significant Selling has not been marked for fourteen days. During Friday’s session there was a rejected probe above 1956.90, the 1/2R off last year’s high. This is the natural Resistance and if ES can print time above this level it would be in a stronger price location. Pre-open today ES prints below that level. Breadth (see below) and rice Momentum (see Pulse Chart & eBook) have improved. Rydex traders still slow to respond, see Sentiment, below.
First Level Support/Resistance = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Second Level Support = ES 1886.50 (70 day poc)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Key Charts/Levels: DIA closed the week above 164.25, its maj poc. On Friday the chart probed above 166.96, the 1/2R off last year’s high. Price printing time above this level would be a further positive. QQQ closed above 101.30, its maj poc.
Market Charts: Nyse and UK turned neutral, Nasdaq and R2000 turned positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 58%, Nasdaq 46%, R2000 49%, UK 47%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.26 which is an eight day high. At the same time SPY reached a thirty four day high. The rydex traders are being very slow to get on this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. One week ago the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: Held the major Support at 105.00 following October’s decline and rallied strongly. On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high – is off that level and printing below the minor 1/2R off this year’s high.
Dollar Index: LT – on 02/11 found Support at 95.22, the 12mn poc. Higher from there and Bulls would want to see that level hold. ST – Currently the chart is printing above 97.87, the 1/2R off this years high, in a stronger price location.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.12, the 24mn poc, which is now Support.
Oil: is printing bove the minor 1/2R off the January low. Bulls (and equity Bulls) would want to see that level hold.
EURUSD: earlier in the month probed above 1.1241, the Major 1/2R, but is off that level and is now printing below 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low AND today has broken below 1.0925, the 12mn poc, and is in a weak price location. Time below this level would suggest a retest of last year’s low.
