Technical analysis – Market pre-open 29th September 2015
Please read previous highlighted comments. On Monday I marked Aggressive Selling for the first time since the start of September. These red-at-bottom lows are tested within a day (or two) 80% of the time. ES is in a weak price location but there is Support at 1865.00, a previous poc of importance. Price printing time below this level would indicate lower.
Second Level Resistance = ES 1932.00 (50dy poc)
First Level Resistance = ES 1917.50 (1/2R off August low)
Support = ES 1865.00 (poc)
Current ETF Resistance: SPY 192.65 = 1/2R off Aug low; IWM 111.50 = poc; QQQ 105.10 = maj poc; DIA 160.00 = 1/2R off Aug low.
Current ETF Support: SPY 187.20 = poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 14% (from 21%), Nasdaq 18% (from 25%), R2000 20% (from 27%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.75. Previous week the ratio reached 3.7 the lowest level since October 2013.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: needs to hold above 121.40 (12mn poc) to stay in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: recently found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Has rallied back and is currently probing the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: held 107.78 last week, the 1/2R off July low. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location.
EURUSD: is weaker printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
