Technical analysis – Market pre-open 2nd May 2016
See previous comments. Friday generated a lower Value Area. The poc Support at 2041.00 held and ES rallied to the close but still ended the week below Mon-Wed range low which indicates Sellers Active on the weekly timeframe. Price printing time below that level would be a negative and Significant Selling marked below that level would indicate further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (min poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Market Charts: Nyse, Nasdaq and R2000 Market Charts remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 73%, Nasdaq 63%, , R2000 71%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.25. Tuesday’s ratio at 5.27 was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower mid month and rallied back a little last week. The 7mn poc migrated to 128.47 and that is now Support with major Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: has today printed its lowest lkevel since last August last year.
Gold: GLD – on Friday printed its highest level since January.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied strongly from there. On Friday Oil printed its highest level since November.
EURUSD: looks to have made a higher low above 1.1198 (3yr poc). Price above that level is strong location.
