Technical analysis – Market pre-open 2nd October
Please read previous highlighted comments. Overnight ES printed more time at 1923.00, the 50dy poc but following a poor jobs report has printed back below 1900. Bond futures rallied and gold is up with dollar lower. More in today’s webcast.
Second Level Resistance = ES 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high)
First Level Resistance = ES 1923.00 (50dy poc)
Support = ES 1865.00 (poc)
Current ETF Resistance: SPY 192.65 = 1/2R off Aug low; IWM 111.50 = poc; QQQ 105.10 = maj poc;
Current ETF Support: SPY 187.20 = poc
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 20% (unch), Nasdaq 22% (from 23%), R2000 24% (from 25%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 3.75. Previous week the ratio reached 3.7 the lowest level since October 2013.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: in a strong price location above 121.40 (12mn poc). Needs to hold that level. Printed a 26day high on Thursday and futures indicate a higher open today.
Dollar Index: recently found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Rallied back to the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) without overcoming it and has fallen today following the jobs data.
Gold GLD: likely to open above 107.78, the 1/2R off July low.
Oil USO: is currently finding Support at the 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location.
EURUSD: is weaker printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
