Technical analysis – Market pre-open 30th September 2015
Monday’s red-at-bottom low was tested but ES found Support at the 1865.00 poc, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. Price printing time below this level would indicate lower. Overnight ES has rallied as high as 1900. SPY also found Support at the given level, see below. I also note that IWM tested the August low on Tuesday.
Second Level Resistance = ES 1932.00 (50dy poc)
First Level Resistance = ES 1917.50 (1/2R off August low)
Support = ES 1865.00 (poc)
Current ETF Resistance: SPY 192.65 = 1/2R off Aug low; IWM 111.50 = poc; QQQ 105.10 = maj poc;
Current ETF Support: SPY 187.20 = poc; DIA 160.00 = 1/2R off Aug low.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 15% (from 14%), Nasdaq 18% (unch), R2000 21% (from 20%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.91. Previous week the ratio reached 3.7 the lowest level since October 2013.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: needs to hold above 121.40 (12mn poc) to stay in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: recently found Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Has rallied back and is currently probing the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: 107.78 is the 1/2R off July low. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness. Cash gold indicates that GLD will open below that Support today.
Oil USO: found Support last week at the minor 1/2R off August low. Price below this level would be weak location.
EURUSD: is weaker printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc). But in the ST, the chart is currently being Supported by the 1/2R off March low at 1.1083. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
