Technical analysis – Market pre-open 3rd December 2015
Wednesday’s session tested Tuesday’s green-at-top high and immediatley sold off. We began three days of potentially high volatility but I note that ES spent most time during yesterday’s session at 2094, the maj poc. As I have noted previously, when price is close to a significant poc, Buying and Selling imbalances are less relaible as a predictor of ST direction – see late July / early August on the Pulse chart when price was around the same level as now. I’m thinking a Value Area (or two) printed entirely above ES 2094 would indicate higher and we haven’t seen that yet. Thirty minutes pre-open today ES has re-tested yesterday’s session low.
Area of Price S/R is 2087.00 (5mn poc) to 2094.00 (maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 58% (from 67%), Nasdaq 62% (from 64%), R2000 63% (from 68%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 8.94. Tuesday’s ratio at 9.00 was a 70day high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT/IEF : on Tuesday TLT broke above the Resistance at 121.40 which is strong price location if it holds. Futures indicate a lower open today. IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: watching price relative to the Resistance at 106.60 (18mn poc).
Dollar Index: on Monday printed its highest level since the March high but sharply lower today.
Gold GLD: cash Gold has printed a new five year low today. Very weak price location.
Oil USO: on Wednesday printed its lowest level since the August low.
EURUSD: on Monday printed its lowest level since April but sharply higher today.
