Technical analysis – Market pre-open 4th April 2016
ES opened lower on Friday but found early Support just above the minor (15day) poc at 2033.00, see Friday’s highlighted comments. An”outside” Value Area was generated and chart closed strong for the day and the week. As long as ES holds 2033.00 it is in a strong price location even in the ST.
First Level Support = 1990 (38day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Market Charts: All major Market charts remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 89%, Nasdaq 78%, R2000 83%, UK 70%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.45. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012. The ratio is still low compared to levels seen last year despite the strong market rally from the February low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – has held the Support at 126.70 (1/2R level), and closed on Friday above 128.43, the 3mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location and currently printing close to its lowest level since October.
Gold: GLD major poc is now 118.05. On Friday found Support at the previous poc at 115.50. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
Oil: USO Sold off sharply at the end of last week. First Level Support is at 9.23, 1/2R off the February low.
EURUSD: found Support recently at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and has rallied from there. On Friday printed its highest level since October.
